Predicting the growth of the 'attention economy'

Wendy Morrill and I recently wrote a piece for the Good Tourism Blog, charting the possible effects of the 'intention economy' - the idea that AI will soon know what you want before you do. This is significant because of the growing range of experiences we have to choose from. Algorithmic curation is already being applied in many fields: for example, 70% of the videos watched on YouTube are now selected for us by algorithms. Some of the implications of the growing curation trend are outlined in a recent article by Greg Richards.

How will we be able to survive the intention economy? Arguably by using systems such as Substack, which provide content curated by real human beings. Good to know that our latest blog item is hosted on Substack, in the Good Tourism Blog curated by David Gillbanks.

The intention economy: A ‘lucrative yet troubling new marketplace’?

Greg Richards (Tilburg University) & Wendy Morrill (WYSE Travel Confederation), The Netherlands

In the past, researchers focused on consumer desires and motivations as the drivers of tourism demand. With the growth of AI, and machines able to predict our wants, some see the emergence of the ‘intention economy’. 

This is, according to Chaudhary & Penn (2024), a “lucrative yet troubling new marketplace” in which we could see “AI assistants that forecast and influence our decision-making at an early stage and sell these developing ‘intentions’ in real-time to companies that can meet the need – even before we have made up our minds.”

In other words, AI will know what we want before we do. Our motivations will be increasingly influenced by algorithms, open to manipulation by companies who will be able to shape our travel intentions to fit their commercial interests.

The travel industry has always been able to shape travel patterns with desirable images, creative storytelling, and attractive prices, but AI takes influence to a new level.

Will people find ways to escape the intention economy trap? Could it be used for more benevolent purposes? 

If the intention economy could be harnessed to influence intentions towards sustainable travel, perhaps there is hope.

Another positive trend, however, is that people are becoming weary of online content in general. 

A return to physical travel agencies was evident from research on travel bookings made by young consumers, revealing an upward trend since 2017. This follows a sharp decline between 2002 and 2012 which tracks with the rise of OTAs and social media. 

The return to travel agencies has been echoed by ABN AMRO research from the Netherlands. The percentage of travellers aged 18 – 34 booking at a physical travel agency rose from 4% to 11% between April 2024 and July 2025. And some 38% of US Millennials and Gen Z booked via a travel agent in 2023.

This was just one contribution to a series of scenarios for tourism to 2030, which can be found on the Good Tourism Blog: https://www.goodtourismblog.com/2025/12/tourism-threats-opportunities-five-years-2030/